New data released today by CoreLogic® shows a total of 7,534 new and resale houses and condominiums sold in Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Santa Clara, San Francisco*, San Mateo, Solano and Sonoma counties in July 2017, down 17.3 percent month over month from 9,114 sales in June 2017** and down 2.6 percent year over year from 7,737 sales in July 2016. July 2017 sales were the lowest for the month of July since 2011 when 7,014 homes sold. Since 1988, the average change in sales between June and July is a decline of 6 percent. July sales have ranged from a low of 6,666 in 1995 to a high of 14,258 in 2004, and July 2017 sales were 17.9 percent below the July average of 9,181 sales since 1988 when data for this report begins (data start dates vary by county).
In July 2017, sales of newly built homes—detached houses and condos combined—were 39.1 percent below the long-term July average, while resales were 15.7 percent below the month’s average. Ignoring the 2003–2006 housing boom that was fueled by risky home loans, July 2017 resales were 11.1 percent below the month’s average.
“The San Francisco Bay Area posted modest year-over-year gains in home sales this May and June, but a tight inventory and waning affordability have taken a toll, and July 2017 sales fell to the lowest level for a July in six years,” said Andrew LePage, research analyst with CoreLogic.
The median price paid for all homes sold in the San Francisco Bay Area in July 2017 was $758,000, down 1.6 percent month over month from a record $770,500 in June 2017** and up 9.1 percent year over year from $695,000 in July 2016. For them past six months, the region has posted year-over-year gains in its median sale price between 6.4 percent and 10 percent. The average gain over that period was 8.5 percent, up from an average year-over-year gain of 5.6 percent last year during the same six-month period (February-July). On a year-over-year basis, the median has risen for 64 consecutive months—since April 2012—and those gains have been single-digit for 11 of the past 12 months. Adjusting for inflation, the July 2017 median remained about 6 percent below its peak.
“The supply-demand imbalance has been the main driver of rising prices,” said LePage. “Although the region’s median sale price dipped in July 2017 below the all-time high of $770,500 set in June, it was still up 9.1 percent from a year earlier. So far this summer, and for most of this year, the median price has risen at a slightly higher growth rate than last year. The rise in mortgage interest rates over the past year exacerbates the affordability challenge home shoppers are currently wrestling with in one of the nation’s priciest housing markets. While last month’s median price rose about 9 percent year over year, the mortgage payment—principal and interest—paid on that median-priced home increased about 16 percent.”
Home sales of $500,000 or more accounted for 75 percent of all sales in July 2017, down from 76.5 percent in June 2017 and up from 70 percent in July 2016.
Additional San Francisco Bay Area Highlights for July 2017:
► Absentee buyers, mostly investors, bought 15.9 percent of all homes sold in July 2017. This was down from 16.3 percent in June 2017** and up from 14.2 percent in July 2016. The absentee buyer share peaked at 28.4 percent in February 2013, and the monthly average since 1988 is approximately 15 percent.
► Jumbo mortgages accounted for 38.6 percent of the total number of home purchase loans used in the San Francisco Bay Area in July 2017, unchanged from June 2017 and up from 34.3 percent in July 2016. Jumbo mortgages represented 60 percent of the total dollar volume of all home purchase originations in July 2017, up slightly from 59.8 percent in June 2017 and up from 55.4 percent in July 2016. Jumbo mortgages are loans that exceed the “conforming loan limit” which is set by regulation and varies by county. Nationally, the base conforming loan limit for single-family homes this year is $424,100, but high-cost areas, including most of the San Francisco Bay Area, had higher limits of up to $636,150. A rise in the jumbo mortgage share of corelogic.com CONTACT: firstname.lastname@example.org July 2017 For more CoreLogic housing economy insights, visit corelogic.com/insights. For CoreLogic configurable real estate data reports visit corelogic.com/solutions/configurable-real-estate-data-reports.aspx home purchase loans can be related to higher home prices, an increase in the share of sales occurring in the market’s higher end or the greater availability of funding for jumbo loans.
► Government-insured Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans accounted for 8.1 percent of home purchase loans in the San Francisco Bay Area in July 2017, down from 10.7 percent in June 2017 and down from 10.9 percent in July 2016. Low-down-payment FHA loans accounted for a substantially higher share of home purchase loans in the more affordable stretches of the Bay Area. For example, Solano County had the highest FHA share in July 2017 at 18.4 percent, followed by Contra Costa County at 17.3 percent and Napa County at 9.7 percent.
► Real estate-owned (REO) sales represented 0.8 percent of total home sales in July 2017, down slightly from 1 percent in June 2017** and down from 1.7 percent in July 2016. REOs are homes that lenders took back through foreclosure and then sold on the open market.
* San Francisco County data was estimated for July 2017 because of late data availability. **When necessary June 2017 data was revised. Revisions are standard, and to ensure accuracy CoreLogic incorporates newly released data to provide updated results.